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Market experts suggest that while recent volatility has raised concerns, Nifty's downside appears limited, with expectations of double-digit growth in 2025. They emphasize caution against high valuations in overheated markets, noting potential in sectors like banking aligned with India's economic growth.
Prashant Jain, CIO and Founder of 3P Investment Managers, emphasizes that the current shift in domestic market liquidity is likely seasonal rather than structural, drawing on his 34 years of experience. He highlights the improved understanding of market dynamics among investors due to extensive education efforts by various stakeholders. Jain remains optimistic about long-term domestic flows, noting that a significant change in investor behavior would only occur if market returns stagnate.
Prashant Jain, founder and CIO of 3P Investment Managers, notes that valuations in the financial sector are aligning with their 10-15 year averages, while other sectors enjoy a premium. He believes larger banks will be less affected by rising slippages in unsecured loans due to their superior customer profiles. Jain also finds the pharmaceutical sector attractive for its strong return on capital and reasonable entry barriers, emphasizing a bottom-up investment strategy focused on individual business strengths.
Prashant Jain, founder and CIO of 3P Investment Managers, likens the current market to a challenging cricket pitch, advocating for a defensive strategy that favors steady gains over risky plays. He emphasizes the importance of focusing on quality businesses and being cautious with valuations, as even minor growth misses can lead to significant market reactions.
Indian markets are approximately 10% overvalued, with limited potential for further re-rating, according to Prashant Jain, founder and CIO of 3P Investment Managers. He notes that market returns should align with an earnings growth rate of 12-13% CAGR, as inflation remains low and margin improvements are minimal across sectors. Jain highlights that while large-cap growth may reach around 12% CAGR, small- and mid-cap growth will be significantly weaker due to the relative strength of larger companies.
Prashant Jain, founder and CIO of 3P Investment Managers, views the current slowdown in consumption as a positive development, emphasizing its sustainability without reliance on debt. He cautioned that consumption driven by rising leverage can lead to demand moderation, highlighting the Reserve Bank of India's efforts to address excessive growth in unsecured retail loans.
Prashant Jain, founder and CIO of 3P Investment Managers, highlights that current valuations are 10-25% above the 15-year average, yet remain justifiable. He notes a shift in consumer spending towards convenience and services, with growth in categories like air travel and food delivery, while traditional consumption slows. Jain also addresses challenges in India related to leverage-driven growth and export deceleration due to global factors.
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